One way to gauge the pace of the AI boom is by watching the hardware supply chain. Nvidia is the most obvious bellwether: as AI companies race to build data centers, they’re buying billions of dollars’ worth of GPUs every month, helping propel Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable company. But Nvidia doesn’t operate in isolation. Its suppliers offer an even earlier signal of where the market is headed.

 

That’s where ASML comes in. The Dutch photolithography firm has become a critical choke point in the semiconductor industry, as the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines required to manufacture the most advanced chips. When ASML’s business is strong, it’s usually because chipmakers expect demand for semiconductors to rise across the board.

 

And according to the company’s quarterly earnings released Wednesday, business is booming.

 

ASML reported €32.7 billion in net sales, an eye-catching figure on its own. More telling, however, were its “new bookings” — the value of fresh orders placed during the quarter. Those orders reflect how much production capacity chip manufacturers believe they’ll need in the coming years, based largely on anticipated data center construction.

 

By that measure, the AI infrastructure boom remains firmly intact. ASML recorded €13 billion in new bookings last quarter, a company record and more than double the total from the previous quarter.

 

In the earnings release, CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed directly to AI as the driver of the surge.

 

“Over the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive view of the medium-term market outlook, primarily driven by stronger expectations around the durability of AI-related demand,” Fouquet wrote. Translated from executive-speak, customers believe AI labs will actually need the data centers they’re building — and they’re spending aggressively now to ensure they can supply the chips later.

 

None of this is guaranteed, of course. Orders can take years to fulfill, plans can change, and some customers may ultimately walk away. A sharp reversal in AI expectations could still upend the market.

 

But for anyone expecting companies to suddenly pull back from the trillions of dollars earmarked for AI infrastructure, the wait may be a long one.