Autonomous Mobility: It's Not Just About The Cars Posted on : Jul 21 - 2018

When people think of autonomous vehicles, they almost always think about cars. As automotive and tech giants race to unveil new vehicles and services, it naturally commands the public’s focus. Headlines appear nearly every day about new businesses forming, and about traditional businesses investing in autonomous vehicles and technology. When an accident on test sites takes place, it grabs headlines for months.

Advocates of autonomous transit point out that most private vehicles are idle 95% of the time, and that electric, on-demand autonomous services solve urban problems such as traffic jams, air pollution and even affordable housing by allowing cities to replace an auto-centric infrastructure such as parking garages with a people-centric infrastructure -- housing nearer to jobs.

In the shadow of the spotlight on autonomous cars, a mythology about what autonomous transit means has emerged. Let’s look at three common myths surrounding autonomous mobility, the facts that these myths obscure and the real solution to the vision that they point to.

1.  Autonomous cars will improve traffic.

Not by themselves. A study of Manhattan traffic found that the rise of ride-hailing services from the likes of Uber and Lyft have made traffic worse, putting 59% more vehicles and 81% more empty vehicles, on the street. Swapping human-driven vehicles for autonomous ones alone is not likely to make things much better.

For autonomous transit to deliver on the promise to reduce congestion, shared services will need to be developed. A University of Texas study modeled an Austin neighborhood and simulated weekday travel for a 10-mile by 10-mile zone. It found that if just 5% of residents shared rides, each shared vehicle would replace about 11 private autos and the 20,000 people who made up this shared network would need just 1,700 vehicles to get around. Just 1,700 vehicles for 20,000 people -- that’s getting cars off the street!

2. Autonomous cars will increase the use of public transit.

This is highly unlikely without careful integration. While autonomous vehicles and services can, and should, complement public transit, simply adding these vehicles to the streets is unlikely to make that happen. Again, using ride-hailing as an example, a landmark U.C. Davis study analyzed the behavior of users and found that 49 to 61% of people used ride-hailing in place of public transit. Public transit use in the U.S. has been on the decline since the advent of these services -- down 2.9% in 2017, which is not good news for commuters. By merely replacing human-driven services with autonomous cars, which is what the ride-hailing services intend to do given their investments in autonomous vehicles, you’re not likely to see different results. View More