AI Enables Improved, Lightweight Hurricane Intensity Predictions Posted on : Oct 23 - 2021

Hurricane prediction still poses challenges for researchers, who scramble to produce accurate predictions of the formation, track, and intensity of tropical cyclones in order to give residents in the storm’s path the information they need to prepare or evacuate. To make matters worse, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season has already produced 20 named storms, nearly double the average observed since 1991 – and the season isn’t over for another two months. Now, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have employed AI techniques to better predict hurricane intensity compared to the most widely used U.S. models.

“There are several research components around tropical cyclones that are interesting,” explained PNNL data scientist and study co-author Wenwei Xu in an interview with Datanami. “But over the years, the tropical cyclone track prediction has been progressing very rapidly, so the accuracy has been increasing a lot. However, the intensity forecast [is] an area that suffers still.”

Intensity forecasts matter quite a bit: even if you know where a storm was going, you might not prepare adequately unless you know how strong it’s going to be – and the most dangerous hurricanes are often those that rapidly intensity, not offering enough warning for residents to safely evacuate. Just this August, Hurricane Ida intensified from a Category 1 storm to nearly a Category 5 storm in less than 24 hours. View More